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hkyeo
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« on: July 19, 2005, 10:42:11 AM » |
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The Kondratieff Cycle:- Read this article for your informed investment decision. Kondratieff's major premise was that capitalist economies displayed long wave cycles of boom and bust ranging between 50-60 years in duration. Kondratieff's study covered the period 1789 to 1926 and was centered on prices and interest rates. Kondratieff's theories documented in the 1920's were validated with the depression less than 10 years later.The Kondratieff wave cycle goes through four distinct phases of beneficial inflation (spring), stagflation (summer), beneficial deflation (autumn), and deflation (winter). Since, the last Kontratyev cycle ended around 1949, we have seen beneficial inflation 1949-1966, stagflation 1966-1982, beneficial deflation 1982-2000 and according to Kondratieff, we are now in the (winter) deflation cycle which should lead to depression.http://www.safehaven.com/article-3452.htmThank Mr. Lim for this forum. Hope we all can make it a good place to discuss our investment idea.  |
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Warren Buffet said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked."
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hkyeo
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2005, 11:50:19 AM » |
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 visit this website for an overview of this economic theory:- http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/cycle.html |
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Warren Buffet said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked."
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asiatrader98
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2005, 11:59:24 AM » |
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The Kondratieff Cycle:- Read this article for your informed investment decision. Kondratieff's major premise was that capitalist economies displayed long wave cycles of boom and bust ranging between 50-60 years in duration. Kondratieff's study covered the period 1789 to 1926 and was centered on prices and interest rates. Kondratieff's theories documented in the 1920's were validated with the depression less than 10 years later.The Kondratieff wave cycle goes through four distinct phases of beneficial inflation (spring), stagflation (summer), beneficial deflation (autumn), and deflation (winter). Since, the last Kontratyev cycle ended around 1949, we have seen beneficial inflation 1949-1966, stagflation 1966-1982, beneficial deflation 1982-2000 and according to Kondratieff, we are now in the (winter) deflation cycle which should lead to depression.http://www.safehaven.com/article-3452.htmThank Mr. Lim for this forum. Hope we all can make it a good place to discuss our investment idea. no idea about this Kondratieff wave cycle , but I am Elloit Wave believer we are now in the (winter) deflation cycle which should lead to depression. no now lah maybe later  |
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hkyeo
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2005, 02:53:39 PM » |
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According to your counting, what waves are we in now? It is wave five?
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Warren Buffet said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked."
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asiatrader98
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2005, 02:56:39 PM » |
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According to your counting, what waves are we in now? It is wave five? Do u mean major wave count based on yearly/monthly chart or minor wave count based on weekly/daily chart ?  |
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hkyeo
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2005, 03:02:48 PM » |
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I'm more interested in the longer term trend i.e. weekly chart
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Warren Buffet said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked."
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asiatrader98
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2005, 10:24:43 AM » |
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I'm more interested in the longer term trend i.e. weekly chart major wave shall be wave 5, but can not confirm the minor wave unless it break above 1000 or below 800 point level based on my analysis  |
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hkyeo
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2005, 10:41:50 AM » |
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If major wave is 5 then we are on our way heading for a BIG downtrend so this also fit in nicely the Kondratieff Cycle (that we are heading for a deep recession). |
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Warren Buffet said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked."
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Maxforce
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2007, 02:20:46 PM » |
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I made some calculations based on fundamental economic factors before and strangely it does come to 2010, plus minus.
But a deep depression as per the Long Wave Theory? Its beyond me.
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"Ren fa di, di fa tian, tian fa tao, tao fa zi ran"
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